It’s a going to be a bit of a sleeper in the Silver State this November: the incumbent governor looks pretty safe and the two competitive House races are long shots. Things could heat up as we approach the election, but right now here’s the situation:
Governor: Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is one of the most popular incumbents in the country and he is expected to cruise to victory in November. Has no significant opposition in the Republican ranks and the Democratic primary has attracted nothing but no-names and has-beens. Polling shows him crushing it in the general election and overall he’s posting numbers more akin to a Republican in a red state than a Republican in a blue state. This race is Safe Republican.
NV-03: Rep. Joe Heck (R) represents one of the swingiest districts in the country and this year he’s facing a strong challenger in Democratic Committeewoman Erin Bilbray, a charismatic progressive activist who has shown the ability to raise money in a difficult environment for Democrats. That being said, this is a difficult environment for Democrats and Heck is a moderate Republican who fits well with the ideology of the district. So Heck will remain the favorite in this Likely Republican race, but he may have to break a sweat to cross the finish line in November.
NV-04: The GOP’s only chance for a pick-up in Nevada is the seat currently held by Rep. Steven Horsford (D), who took office in 2012 as the first representative from Nevada’s newly created 4th congressional district. The two Republicans angling to replace him are State Rep. Crescent Hardy and Congress on Racial Equality spokesman Niger Innis. Both Hardy and Innis has a equal shot at winning the nomination, but they would face an uphill climb to represent this Democratic leaning district. Regardless of who wins the GOP primary, this race is Likely Democratic and it would take a strong Republican effort for the GOP to have a chance at winning in November.