2014 Election Preview: Texas

The deadline the for candidates to run in the March primary came and went earlier this month, setting the stage for the March primaries. This is the landscape for 2014 in the Lone Star State:


Incumbent Governor Rick Perry (R), who has been in office since George W. Bush resigned after winning the 2000 presidential election, will not run for another term. The GOP front-runner by a wide-margin is Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who faces very little in the way of organized opposition. That said, former Univision personality Miriam Martinez could be an outlet for anti-establishment forces to coalesce around if she knows what she’s doing. And that’s a big if. As for the Democrats, the only serious candidate is State Senator Wendy Davis, most famous for her talking filibuster against a recent Texas anti-abortion bill. While she may be a darling of progressives nationwide, pro-choice doesn’t really sell that well in Texas. In the end, this race is Likely Republican.


Right up until the filing deadline, it seemed that Senator John Cornyn (R) would avoid a challenge from conservative activists that so many of his colleagues will have to face in 2014. But then Rep. Steve Stockman (R) made a last minute filing to run against Cornyn in the March primary, setting the stage for… well, not much. Stockman isn’t exactly the most credible candidate and polls show that Cornyn is in good shape for the GOP nomination. That could change, but right now its hard to see anyone other than John Cornyn as the Senator from Texas come January 2015. Regardless of who wins the primary, this seat is Safe Republican.


TX-23: Due to an impressive of amount of gerrymandering, the state with the second most congressional districts has only one competitive race this cycle. The 23rd is one of the largest in the country and stretches from San Antonio to El Paso. In 2012, Democrat Pete Gallego defeated freshman Rep. Quico Canseco (R) in this majority Latino district. Two years later, Canseco is running to reclaim his former seat in what should be a better year for Republicans. Of course he first has to make it out of the primary, where former CIA operative Will Hurd seems to be running a strong campaign. Both Hurd and Canseco have a shot at taking this seat, but Gallego will have the advantage of incumbency and because of that this race Leans Democrat.

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