Senate Update #1


It’s been one month since I released my Senate race analysis and there have been quite a few developments since then:

In Alaska, new polling shows Republican front runner Mead Treadwell cutting Senator Mark Begich’s lead in half, now trailing by only 4%. The poll also shows all the other possible GOP contenders gaining as well, though none are as close as Treadwell.

In Arkansas, US Rep. Tom Cotton has jumped into the race and a slew of new polls show that the race between him and Senator Mark Pryor is a dead heat. I have feeling that once that campaign starts to heat up, this race will move over to the “Leans Republican” column, But as for now, I’m leaving it as a toss-up.

In Georgia, Michelle Nunn now represents the best chance for a Democratic pick-up in 2014. The daughter of popular former Senator Sam Nunn is leading all of her Republican rivals in a recent poll, though the most support she gets is 42%. Given that a lot of the undecideds are probably conservative leaning, I’d still give the edge to the GOP right now.

In Michigan, we’re moving the state from Toss-up to Leans Democrat. Rep. David Camp, the GOP’s best hope for winning the seat, declined to run and instead will seek reelection in the House of Representatives.

In North Carolina, Democratic Senator Kay Hagan has held up pretty well in the polls. She may very well be vulnerable in 2014, but until the polling says so I’m putting the race as “Lean Democrat”.

In South Carolina, State Senator Lee Bright and author Nancy Mace have entered the Republican primary against Senator Lindsey Graham. Will they be able to pull off an upset? Probably not, but at least it’s not as boring as an uncontested primary.

You can see the rest of the changes and the entire 2014 Senate picture here. I will be updating the page at least once a month, with more updates coming as the election approaches.


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