New Poll: Weiner Goes Limp, Falls into Third Place

From NBC/Marist:

“The new NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll released Thursday found Weiner’s favorability rating among registered Democrats has tanked since June, from 52 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll conducted Wednesday. Over that same period, the percentage of Democrats who said they had an unfavorable impression of Weiner spiked from 36 to 55.

His lead over City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has also evaporated; 25 percent of Democrats said they’d now vote for her in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, and 16 percent said they’d back Weiner. A poll conducted last month had Weiner leading Quinn 25 percent to 20 percent.”

I called it yesterday.

Wiener’s polling has shown significant shrinkage since news broke that he had continued sexting even after he resigned from Congress. He went all the way from being comfortably in first place to statistically tied for second with Bill Thompson and Bill de Blasio. As a result this race has just become a free-for-all, and it’s conceivable that any of the top four challengers could end up with a win on election day.

Quinn has picked up a good chunk of support as a result of Weiner’s troubles, netting about half of his defectors. The big question now is whether she can hold on to them all the way to the primary, or whether they will disperse to the other candidates. Considering the weakness she has shown over the past few months, it’s hard to see how should could do better than she is doing right now.

With de Blasio and Thompson now in contention to make it to the runoff, expect to see them get more media exposure over the next few weeks. Thompson could benefit from increased visibility in locking up the African American vote, of which he has only 23% support now. Bill de Blasio is showing strength across most demographics, and it will be interesting to see how he does as he gets more attention.

The New York City mayor’s race has just gotten a whole lot more interesting.

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