After a lot of hard work and research, I’ve come up with a definitive guide to the upcoming US Senate elections next year. I know it’s a long ways away, but many campaigns are already underway and the first filing deadlines are in mere months.
There are 35 senate elections scheduled for November 4th, 2014. Two of them are special elections, which means they are being held to fill the term left vacant by the death or retirement of a senator. The elections (except for the two special elections) are for six year terms that begin in January 2015.
Currently the Democratic Party has 52 United States Senators, along with 2 Independents who caucus with them. That leaves the Republicans with 46, which means they are 5 seats away from controlling them chamber. In this cycle, the GOP has a good shot to gain seats and it is possible that come 2015 Republican Mitch McConnell will be the Senate Majority Leader, ousting Democrat Harry Reid.
For each of the races, I devote a few sentences to describing what’s going on in each state. I also show the filing deadlines, which is when the candidates need to officially declare their candidacy, and the primary election dates. In addition, I list all of the declared and potential candidates for each party’s nomination, linking to their websites if they have one.
Each race is also assigned a competitiveness rating, which gauges the likelihood of each party winning the seat.
Safe: 100-85% chance of indicated party winning
Likely: 84-60% chance of indicated party winning
Toss-Up: 59-40% chance of either side winning
This page will be updated once a month until the election, with updates becoming more frequent as we approach November 4th, 2014. I will also be adding a page for the Governors’ races as well. I might even add a page for the House of Representatives, but who knows?